January 26, 2015

Despite increased spring planting and lower consumption, Canadian wheat stocks ending 2015/16 are forecast to be near the lowest levels on record according to the Canadian farm ministry, AAFC. The national harvest is expected to be 30 million tons – 719,000 tons above 2013 as a result of 321,000 hectares of increased planting bringing total area planted to 10.11 million hectares. This 4% increase year on year in spring planting contrasts with winter planting which was down 33% because of a delayed harvest last year limiting the amount of available land for planting. Despite this greater sowing, the AAFC foresees Canadian wheat stocks for 2015/16 falling 1.4 million tons to 4.8 million tons – one of the lowest levels in the past 25 years. Only one season has fallen lower according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, when in 2007/08 Canadian stocks fell to 4.37 million tons. The ministry also foresees a decline in canola stocks for the country. Canola sowing is expected to increase by 175,000 hectares to 8.4 million hectares, and production is expected to climb to 16 million tons. However, because of increased domestic demand on increased crushing, canola stocks are forecast to fall by 50,000 tons to 1.4 million tons for 2015/16.

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