February 12, 2015

For years, soaring Chinese corn imports have been believed to be a reliable future, however, mitigating factors have caused the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to cut its forecast in its long-term global crop supply and demand report for Chinese corn imports for 2023/24 to 6.5 million tons – down from a forecast of 22 million tons last year. Although the USDA does report growing demand for corn in China, driven by the country’s livestock sector and industrial uses, it also notes that high domestic supply will hinder future imports. By the end of this season, Chinese corn inventories are expected to be 79 million tons – 40% of the total world supply. In addition, Chinese buyers are showing preference for alternative grains such as barley and sorghum which are not only cheaper than corn, but not subject to quotas like corn. Chinese sorghum imports have been rising, and for 2015/16 the USDA expects imports to reach 4.8 million tons, and 5.4 million tons by 2023/24 – far above last year’s long-term forecast of 1.9 million tons. Forecasts for China’s barley imports have also been upgraded to 5.1 million tons up from a previous estimate of 2.8 million tons.

Even considering the increased imports of sorghum and barley, forecasts for China’s overall coarse grain imports for 2023/24 have been cut to 17.2 million tons, down from a previous estimate of 26.8 million tons. Closely tied to these reduced grain forecasts, China’s beef imports are predicted to increase by 140,000 tons to 924,000 tons in 2023/24, and its pork imports are expected to increase by 272,000 tons to 1.37 million tons, leading China to overtake Japan as the world’s top pork importer.

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