September 30, 2014

As porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) continues to linger across U.S. hog farms, the national hog herd has continued to decline between June and August, but at a slower rate than the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expected.  As of September 1^st the U.S. hog herd was at 98% of what is was at the same point last year at 65.361 million head – compared to the USDA forecast of a herd totaling 64.698 million head or 96.7% of the herd a year earlier. Although the number surpass USDA expectations, the herd is still the smallest herd since the 2006 herd of 62.915 million head.   The USDA data indicates that producers less affected by PEDv increased their herd sizes in response to record low corn prices and high prices for their animals.   The September 1^st U.S. breeding herd was 102% of the September 1, 2013 breeding herd at 5.920 million head, and the largest since the breeding herd for the summer of 2008 at 6.061 million head.  Warmer summer conditions make PEDv less virulent, and summer litters this year showed only a 2% decline compared to recent 5% declines last winter, however the industry will be watching the progress of the virus closely as the temperatures fall.

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