December 18, 2014

Thailand replaced India as the world’s top rice exporter in 2014 as shipments jumped 54% to reach 10.2 million tons according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Earlier in 2014 the country eliminated a price support system that resulted in significant reserve build-up. Since that point, the military, which took control of the government in May, has been consistently selling down the reserves. Because of this, in 2015 Thai rice exports are expected to grow even further to reach 11 million tons despite a decline in domestic production. Meanwhile India’s shipments are forecast to decline to 8.2 million tons from 10 million tons this year. During the state run subsidy program, the price of Thai rice hit a three year high of $647 per ton and hit a premium of $127 per ton against Vietnamese rice. Prices have since fallen 36% to $416 per ton and Thai rice is now selling at a premium of only $13 per ton against Vietnamese rice. Global rice production is expected to be 496.6 million tons – a 0.2% decline year on year after production in India fell because of a late monsoon. Global inventories likely decline 2.1% in 2015 to 177.5 million tons as demand rise by 1.9% to 500.5 million tons. Thailand’s stockpile is expected to decline to 16.1 million tons in 2015 from a record 17.8 million tons this year.

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