October 15, 2014

Last year Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock Production and Supplies in Brasilia forecast that Brazil’s cocoa production would be 243,000 tons in 2022/23.  This forecast has now been lowered by 27,000 tons or 15.7% to just 216,000 tons.  Last year authorities believed that cocoa acreage would expand by 8.9% to 742,000 hectares from 681,000 hectares however this outlook has also been modified, concluding that the country’s cocoa acreage will in fact decline by 1% from 686,000 hectares in 2013/14 to 679,000 hectares in 2022/23.  These new forecasts were made by Brazil’s agriculture ministry using specific econometric models for the first time used for series forecasting, creating a 122 page projection for Brazil’s agri-businesses to 2022/23.  In 1989/90 Brazil’s cocoa output reached a high of 350,000 tons before plunging through the 90’s to land at 123,500 tons by 1999/2000 after the industry was hit by witches’ broom disease.  This decline drove Brazil from a net exporter to a net importer of raw cocoa, remaining so to this day.

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