November 11, 2014
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report that U.S. cow numbers and output will both moderate for 2015, however, production is still forecast to hit a record 212.3 billion pounds – 6 billion pounds above 2014 production, and far in excess of the 201.1 billion pounds produced in 2013. The USDA goes on to warn in the report that Class III dairy prices are forecast to fall by $5 per hundredweight, or 22% off of 2014 prices – the largest ever year on year decline for Class III average prices. The decline will be a result of record production, but also lower export volumes as U.S. dairy exports become less competitive on global markets. 2015 price estimates for cheese and non-fat dry milk have been lowered on expectations of large domestic supplies, while prices for butter have also been lowered for 2015 on predictions of lower export volumes.
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