February 10, 2015

A newly published study of non-irrigated soybean yields states that climate change has cost U.S. soybean growers approximately $11 billion because of unrealized potential yield over the past 20 years. U.S. farmers have increased soybean yields by a third of a bushel per acre over that time period, or 0.8% per year because of the adoption of higher yielding varieties and improved production practices, according to the study’s researchers which include scientists at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and University of Wisconsin. However, these increases would have been 30% higher if not for the changing rainfall patterns and higher temperatures brought on by climate change.

Between 1994 and 2003, the U.S. experienced a trend of warming growing seasons, and shifting rainfall patterns that increased in intensity during the spring, but declined during June, July, and August. After studying 12 soybean producing states, the team found that for every one degree rise in temperature, soybean yields fell by 4.3%, and also fell if June and August were drier and May, July, and September were wetter than usual.

Due to warmer springs and autumns lengthening the growing season, more northern regions such as the Dakotas and Canada saw an increase in yields, however this was not enough to offset the loss to more southern traditional soybean growing regions. For example, Minnesota saw a gain of $1.7 billion over 20 years due to increased production, but Missouri experienced a loss of $5 billion over the same time period because of lost opportunity.  To read more about this study and its findings:

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