July 10, 2013

According to a study from the Institute on the Environment at the University of Minnesota global crop yields are not increasing quickly enough to support global needs by 2050.  Previous studies estimated that crop yields will need to increase between 60%-110% to meet increasing demand.  In this current study researchers found that yields for four key crops: maize, rice, wheat and soybeans will only increase by 38%-67% by 2050 at current rates.  Particularly troubling places are where population and food production trajectories are at substantial odds such as Guatemala where population is increasing as corn production is decreasing.  The study goes on to states that boosting crop yields through more advanced management techniques and reducing waste is preferable to clearing more land for agricultural use. 

Following is a chart showing analysis HighQuest has previously done on this subject – comparing weighted average index global yields of corn, rice, wheat and soybeans versus population growth for the periods 1961-1981 (during the Green Revolution) and 1990-2010 (during the Gene Revolution).  The rapid closing of the gap between population growth and the production of food is striking.

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