The ongoing spread of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) in the Americas and Asia will significantly impact pork supplies this summer and for years to come according to Rabobank. PEDv has been the driving force pushing up pork prices to record highs especially in the U.S. where future are up 45% from this time last year. Rabobank states that the PEDv outbreaks in the U.S., Mexico, Japan, and South Korea will cause a decrease in pork production in 2014 with the U.S. experiencing a decline between 6% and 7%. In Russia, prices have soared since its ban on the importation of EU pork following the discovery of ASF in wild hogs along the border of Poland and Lithuania. The ban will result in the loss of 1.3 million tons of imports or one third of Russia’s total pork import volume for 2013. But with North America experiencing tight supplies because of PEDv, Russia will have few alternative suppliers to turn to. However in China, the world’s largest pork producer and consumer of pork, there is currently a supply glut and Rabobank predicts prices in China will continue to fall through the second and third quarters of 2014. Toward the second half of 2014, continued sow liquidation in China should keep the market balanced as China’s seasonal increase in pork consumption begins.
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