The Australian Oilseeds Federation (AOF) forecasts an Australian canola crop of 3.86 million tons – well above the estimates by Abares, Australia’s official crop bureau at 3.47 million tons, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) at 3.10 million tons. The AOF states that the start of the season has seen excellent moisture levels in many regions, warmers than average temperatures, and good follow-up rain to plating with planted area reaching 2.52 million hectares – the second biggest area planted on record. There are some factors that can undermine the AOF’s forecast. The crop could be at a more mature stage than usual going into winter because of the warm weather which could negatively impact future yield, and the expected El Nino weather system could cause a lack of moisture and could cause farmers to underinvest in inputs for the crop. Global canola crop outlooks have been positive. Conditions for Canada, the world’s top exporter are looking good and the USDA has upgraded its forecast for the EU’s canola crop, the world’s biggest, by 500,000 tons to a record 22 million tons.
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