February 5, 2015

For the past 20 years, chicken has been the most produced meat in the U.S. followed by beef. But as the U.S. hog herd rebounds from the devastating effects of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDV), and consumer demand increases, pork production climbed 4.6% in 2015 to a record, and is surpassing beef production for the first time since 1952. Not only is the U.S. herd getting bigger, but individual hogs are getting bigger as well. For 2014, the average slaughter weight was 216 pounds, reaching a record 222 pounds in May 2014, compared to an average weight of 208 pounds for 2013. Herd growth, hog weight growth, and per capital pork consumption reaching its highest point in five years, translates to record pork production of 23.908 billion pounds according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), compared to a 1.7% decline in beef production to 23.901 billion pounds, as chicken production reaches a new record of 39.206 billion pounds. Pork prices are forecast to be ‘significantly’ lower this year, however this could change if PEDv reappears, hitting the hog herd once again, or if demand increases further or production decreases. U.S. pork exports are down due to a strong U.S. dollar, falling for each of the five months to November 2014, indicating a possible impending surplus as more production will have to be absorbed by the domestic market.

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