The salmon industry is expected to continue to see a scenario of undersupply and high prices that has been present since 2012 for at least the next two years according to Rabobank. Increasing global demand and legislative and biological constraints in Norway and Chile will limit supply and support high prices and strong profitability even taking into account Russia’s ban on Norwegian and EU salmon. In Norway almost all salmon producers are nearing their legal production limits, and in Chile deteriorating sanitary conditions of 2012/13 and increasing costs of production have limited growth in the industry. However, Chilean producers have been working to reverse these negative conditions within the sector and could become the leading global growth driver within the industry in the long-term. In Norway, legislators are currently debating increasing production limits to allow for possible growth. Salmon supply from Norway is predicted to see a growth of between 3% and 5% over the next three years – lower than the long-term average of 7%. In a situation of high profitability and limited short-term growth opportunities, Rabobank foresees the salmon industry investing heavily in biosecurity, sustainability, and technological advances.
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