According to a draft of the annual agricultural policy statement, China’s government is considering cutting the ratio of total food crops relative to consumption to 80% from 95%. China would still continue to produce and stockpile enough rice and wheat to feed its population in times of emergency however food output is unlikely to keep pace with consumption over the next one to two decades. The policy shift would be a big opportunity for exporters in North America, South America, Oceania, Europe and Asia as China buys more corn, rice and wheat to cushion shortages in bad crop years. North America and Australia are the biggest suppliers of wheat to China, the U.S. is the biggest supplier of corn (although China began accepting shipments from Ukraine and Argentina last year), and Vietnam, Pakistan, and Thailand are the leading suppliers of rice. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, despite China’s output of rice, corn, and wheat increasing for the 10th consecutive year to 601.9 million metric tons, and soybean imports rising 8.6% to 63.4 million tons, China’s food imports by volume increased in 2013. Much of the corn and soybean gains went to animal feed as meat increasingly accounts for a larger portion of Chinese diets.
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