Farm Credit Canada’s chief agricultural economist, J.P. Gervais lists the top five agricultural issues for Canada to watch in 2014.
Land values: Land values will likely plateau as bumper crops will bring commodity prices back to their averages. Reduced crop prices could also cause farmers to be less aggressive when considering expanding their operations.
Trade Deals: The Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Once CETA is ratified it would open up a market of 500 million customers for Canada and the TPP would involve 12 countries.
U.S. politics and economy: Despite the ‘fiscal cliff debt ceiling’ and the failure to pass a new farm bill, Mr. Gervais predicts the U.S. economy will continue to improve based on the Federal Reserve deciding to scale back its aggressive monetary policy.
Beef : The U.S. cattle herd has declined 5% over the past two years due to drought and economic conditions while the Canadian herd has remained stable. Demand remains high from emerging markets and trade deals could open additional global outlets.
Equipment sales: With lower crop prices, equipment sales could slow – leveling off closer to the sales averages of 2001-2005.
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