Dry weather in eastern Australia will be causing a challenging situation for grain traders as below normal harvests are expected for wheat, canola, barley and sorghum. A combined harvest of 16 million tons is expected – down 1 million tons from last year, and 3.2 million tons below the 2012/13 harvest. At this output, after eastern Australia’s domestic demand of 10 million tons is met, only 6 million tons of surplus will be available for export – 24% below last year and 37% below 2012/13 according to GrainCorp which is beginning its 2015 fiscal year with carryover stocks that are down 17%. This tightening of supply will intensify the competition for grain in eastern Australia over the coming year as GrainCorp states that it expects to face rivals in bulk grain exports in at least four of its ports.
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