Shipments of palm oil to India, the world’s biggest buyer may decline for the first time since 2009/10 by 8.4% to 7.6 million tons from 8.3 million tons as record global supplies cause a reduction in palm oil’s discount to soybean and sunflower oils. Soybean oil imports are 61% higher reaching 1.75 million tons and sunflower oil imports are seen rising 49% to 1.45 million tons. These reduced shipments to India could increase palm oil stockpiles in Indonesia and Malaysia however effects upon production from the impending El Nino event are yet to be seen. A moderate El Nino could reduce production by 12% and a severe El Nino even such as in 1997/98 could reduce production by 15%. As far as domestic production of edible oil crops in India, this year’s monsoon has had its weakest start since 2009/10 leading analysts not to expect an increase in production. India imports more than 50% of its cooking oil to meet domestic demand, and overall cooking oil imports to India are forecast to increase 6.7% to a record 111.1 million tons for 2013/14.
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