In its latest report, Rabobank’s Food and Agribusiness division states that with the exception of the U.S., bullish conditions across global poultry markets are shifting bearish because of an abrupt increase in grain prices as a result of the turmoil in Ukraine and concerns over the return of El Nino. Trade streams are likely to be affected by a slowdown in global trade volumes and lower product prices. Pending anti-dumping duties on EU poultry in South Africa, a new free trade agreement granting Ukraine access to the EU market through quotas, and the potential return of U.S. exports to the Chinese market will all likely have an effect upon global trade streams as well. U.S. poultry is expected to see a very positive year as Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus is shrinking the pork supply and the country’s beef herd is contracted. China will continue to struggle as the country has been hit with its second outbreak of Avian Influenza in under a year. Russia continues to deal with oversupply problems and export growth remains meager. Brazil has a good grain harvest outlook and improving domestic demand, but the fallout of the challenges of the export markets remains to be seen. The Indian industry is recovering from conditions of oversupply and the Japanese market conditions are bullish after the recent opening of Japan for Thai raw chicken.
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