The size of the U.S. hog herd declined for the first time in three years as the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) spreads. A Bloomberg survey indicates that the U.S. hog herd was 67.463 million hogs as of September 1st – down 1% from the same date last year. PEDV has been found in 17 states with 644 confirmed cases since April. Piglets three weeks or younger experience a mortality rate as high as 100%. Hog futures are up 18% from a year ago, and with feed costs declining hog producers may earn $28 per hog on average from December through 2014. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that pork production may increase 3.2% while beef production may drop 5.7% next year. The economic effects of the spread of PEDV will likely not be felt for five or six months when the pigs that died would have gone to market.
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