Since crops began going dormant in November, conditions have deteriorated by the most in five years. Drought has been a concern with some areas receiving less than a third of the normal rain since planting and drier than normal subsoils have more than doubled to 76% in March in an area from Texas to North Dakota. Extreme weather has driven world food price to a 10-month high in March as dry conditions worldwide are pushing up the price of meats, dairy, and grains. Wheat yields may drop to 45.7 bushels per acre this year compared with 47.4 bushels per acre a year earlier and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s first estimate of this year’s U.S. crop conditions due out on April 7th may show 42% in good or excellent condition compared to 62% in November – this would represent the largest point drop during winter dormancy since 2009. Sub-zero winter temperatures could mean farmers will abandon up to 10% of fields – up from an average of 3%. If U.S. wheat output is down this year, consumers are watching Canada where the government’s intervention may double rail transport of grain and will likely make up for any shortfall from the U.S.
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