Despite a “roller coaster” of a decade in primary agricultural markets, the outlook for the next decade looks more stable, according to the U.N.’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the OECD. The past decade brought record highs in 2008, a global recession in 2009 and near-record highs that led to surpluses in wheat, rice sugar and vegetable meal in 2012. However, the next ten years (2014-2023) is expected to start with a 1-2 year “correction period” with lower food price inflation and crop prices expected to drop and then stabilize at levels above those experienced in 2008. Stability in the remainder of the next decade is expected to coincide with increasing global agricultural production and consumption but at a slower growth rate than in the previous decade. This slower growth will lend itself to lower growth rates in trade, with grains trade expected to increase 1.5% and meat trade 2.5% annually.
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