Western countries have imposed sanctions against Russia in response to that country’s annexation of Crimea and its support of pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine, however, short-term credit has been left unaffected, leaving Russia in a good trade position as it expects near record harvests this season. The possibility of further sanctions will drive exporters to want to make quick sales early in the season, however traders remain unconcerned stating that despite sanctions and political unrest, as long as the fighting does not approach the ports in the south, the grain trade will continue. Russian wheat has been dominating Egyptian wheat tenders as France, the largest EU wheat exporter, has been dealing with a low-quality harvest because of excess rains. If sanctions do advance and affect Russia’s grain trade, it would likely lead to an increase in global wheat prices and cause conditions similar to 2010 when Russia enacted a one-year ban on exports because of drought, causing instability in the Middle East and North Africa which are heavily dependent upon wheat imports.
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