Excessive rains and the spread of rust fungus have held down Columbia’s coffee output in recent years. But as bushes mature that were planted as a part of a reseeding program to counter rust with resistant varieties, and weather patterns return to normal, Columbia’s coffee harvest will reach 10.8 million bags this season and is expected to achieve a seven-year high next season at 11.9 million bags for 2014/15. The recovery in the sector will drive exports to a 21-year high at 11.59 million bags with more than 40% of those exports going to the U.S. In contrast, Indonesia’s coffee production is seen falling for a second consecutive season in 2014/15 to 8.9 million bags because of excessive rains during the country’s dry season disrupting pollination, poor agricultural practices, and aging trees with waning yields. Indonesia’s exports are expected to decline to a seven-year low of 7.2 million bags for 2014/15 – 4 million bags below Columbia. However, if an El Nino weather pattern materializes, it could cause drought conditions and pest infestations in Columbia in the second half of 2014.
To receive relevant news stories with summaries provided by GAI Research & Insight, subscribe to Global AgDevelopments, our free weekly enhanced eNews service