India’s agriculture growth will likely stay at approximately 1% for fiscal year 2014/15 according to the rating agency Crisil. Monsoon rains are at 24% below the historical average which is worse than 2009 or 2012 however, like 2012 a recovery is expected with a rainfall deficit of less than 10% by the end of the season. In June official forecasts called for a 33% chance of a deficient monsoon and a 38% chance of a sub-normal monsoon. Despite the possible recovery, growth is forecast to remain at approximately 1% because of a strong statistical base-effect as a result of last year’s growth. In addition deficient rain has caused notable damage to pulse and cereal sowing in the country. As of July 25 coarse cereal sowing was 43% below normal, pulse sowing was 33% below normal, and oilseed sowing was 17% below normal. Rice was faring better at 16% below normal. If the rains recover in the coming weeks, total Indian foodgrain output will rebound, but because of the high growth of last year, year on year comparisons will be flat at best.
To receive relevant news stories with summaries provided by GAI Research & Insight, subscribe to Global AgDevelopments, our free weekly enhanced eNews service