Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) is expected to have a lasting effect upon the pork exporting countries of Mexico and the U.S. Profit margins for U.S. hog producers are at historic highs at $115 per head and are expected to remain high through 2015. The high margins have resulted in a 5% increase in hog weights and as PEDv becomes more of an issue this autumn and winter, producers will work to keep animal weights up to take advantage of high prices. In Mexico hog prices are expected to increase by 10% as pork production falls by 9.7% in 2014 and imports are forecast to reach a record volume of 880,000 tons. The jump in EU pork exports to the U.S. and Asia will likely not be sufficient to make up for the lost trade as a result of the banning of EU pork imports by Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus which collectively accounted for more than 1 million tons of pork exports in 2013. In China producers are losing as much as $50 per head as hog to corn ratios fell to 5.1:1 in June leading producers to limit their herd size or to abandon the hog industry. The Chinese pork industry is expected to see further consolidation and prices will likely rebound in the fourth quarter of 2014 and early 2015 as supplies tighten.
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