According to data from Agrorucom, between 2012-2016 the Russian meat industry will experience a total overall growth of 17%, or 4.3% annual average growth after experiencing an annual growth rate of 15%-20% for the years 2008-2012. The drop in growth is being attributed to a decrease in investor interest. And according to the Economic Development Ministry (EDM) Russia should increase meat production by 2016 to between 9.2 million and 9.6 million tons – up from 8.1 million tons in 2012. Imports should stay between 2.3 million and 2.6 million tons per year. However, producers will likely not be able to maintain this pace after 2016 when the largest pork and poultry projects within the country will have been completed. Agrorucom added that “…after 2017 the development of the sector may stop.” By 2016 live pig production will grow by 15.4% and poultry production will grow by 27.5%. The share of pork imports will equal 20% as compared to 25.8% in 2012 while poultry imports will equal 8% as opposed to 12.7% in 2012. Despite these numbers, the sectors face negative issues. The poultry industry will not continue to grow because of a lack of sales markets and the number of investment projects in the pork industry a quickly dwindling as the current ones are to be completed in 2016. African swine fever (ASF) has been causing serious damage to the Russian industry with 76 outbreaks reported in 2013 alone, costing the industry US$1 billion. The beef and lamb sectors are expected to suffer as well as their popularity is falling in Russia and is predicted to continue on a long decline.
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