The U.S. beef cattle herd is expected to grow by over 3 million head and will spread to regions of the country previously not used for cattle production, including the Southwest, High Plains, and the Corn Belt within the next three to five years, according to the recent Rabobank Food and Agribusiness Research report, “Beef Cow Repopulation: The Case for Diversification”.

 

The report indicates that the new geographic distribution of cattle production will also change historic models for crop production, feeder cattle acquisition, and calf production.

 

“We are going to see the process happen in two phases and in different geographies than we would have a few years ago. The excess capacity in the Southwest and High Plains will fill out first. Once that area has repopulated, rebuilding will occur in the central U.S. – mainly the Dakotas and into the Corn Belt,” says Don Close, one of the co-authors of the report.

 

Although mitigating factors such as exports and weather will play a role in the rate of repopulation, once the cowherd repopulation is complete, the report suggests that herd numbers will be equal to those of 2011, or 3.5 to 4 million head more than 2014 levels. Of this new population, 1.7 million head are expected to be originated from newly developed production capacity located in the central U.S., which had typically concentrated on row crop production.

 

In 2014 U.S. cattle production and herd size fell to their lowest points since 1996 according to an updated June 24, 2015 U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) report. Higher carcass weights have helped the industry offset the smaller herd size and have support high prices, but the report projects that 2015 commercial beef production will fall to a ‘multidecade’ low of 24 billion pounds.