The decline in Brazil’s coffee stocks due to drought-damaged crops could have global ramifications according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO).  Analysts believe that much of Brazil’s estimated 15.2 million-bag private coffee inventories will be needed to supply the market.  Total Brazilian coffee production is forecast to be 45 million bags which will not be sufficient to meet the 21 million bag domestic consumption and estimated export demand of well over 30 million bags.  In the nine months to June 2014 exports of Brazilian natural coffee beans increased 9% to reach a level second only to a record set three years ago.  On a global scale, the International Coffee Organization notes that world inventories have fallen to equal 3.4 month’s supply – down from a world stock of 8 month’s supply of coffee a decade ago.  The ICO warns that global demand may outpace supply in the near future.  Colombia, the world’s second ranked coffee producer after Brazil saw exports climb 22% to 9.2 million bags between October to June, however, during that same time period, exports from Indonesia fell by almost half from 8.3 million bags to 4.4 million bags.
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