Because of high prices of corn, soybean meal, and forages, coupled with recent drought conditions, beef animal numbers have been declining since 2007, however according to the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois the beef industry is set to reverse this trend, albeit slowly. At this time 73% of the U.S.’s pastures are rated in the fair, good or excellent condition compared with 46% at this time last year. Feed prices are expected to drop sharply with the harvest of this year’s new crops- with fall soybean meal prices being as much as $200 per ton lower than current old crop offers. In areas of the country where pastures have been restored, heifer retention will likely occur this fall, primarily in areas east of the Mississippi River, but the scope of heifer retention is expected to be low and slow to begin, as almost half the country’s cows are in areas still effected by drought conditions. Once the price of calves moves closer to $2 per pound, expansion of herd numbers may increase.
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