As political tension in Ukraine and Russia, and drought in the U.S. threaten wheat supplies from those producers, globally, growers are producing more wheat than ever. Global stockpiles on May 31st will rise to 186.8 million tons according to a Bloomberg survey. This number is equal to 26.9% of estimated use, and global production for 2014/15 is estimated to reach a record for a second straight year at 713.1 million tons including record output in India and China. There are still possibilities of supply disruptions. The U.S. is on track to harvest the smallest wheat crop since 2006 with total domestic wheat production dropping 2.9% to 2.069 billion bushels – the lowest since 2011, and political tensions in Ukraine and Russia, both suppliers to Egypt, the world’s top importer, threatening supplies from that region. However there has been no evidence of export disruption so far. Despite these situations, global grain production has never been bigger. The USDA predicts that global supplies of wheat, rice, and coarse grains including corn and barley will rise 8.3% to 2.452 billion tons in the twelve months ending May 31st. Outside the U.S, grain output will total 295.4 kilograms per person in the world – the highest ever and 18% higher than a decade ago. To read further:
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