SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat production from 50 million tons to 52 million tons for the 2013-14 crop year and has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports from 10 million tons to between 14-15 million tons. Kiev-based agriculture analysis body APK-Inform estimates Ukraine wheat exports to increase by 37% from the previous year to 9.2 million tons. Faced with the competition from this bumper crop from the Black Sea, European wheat prices have already fallen by 14% and could fall an additional 10% by September. The Russian Grain Union is recommending that Russian farmers hold back their wheat from the market until September or even February or March of 2014 to help stabilize prices.
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