The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) May 1^st forecast for the California almond crop this year placed output at 1.95 billion pounds while most in the industry expected this year’s harvest to be equal to or larger than last year’s crop of 2 billion pounds.  The predicted 2.5% decrease in production reflects an expected 4.6% reduction in yields from 2,380 pounds per acre in 2013 to 2,270 pounds per acre in 2014.  Within hours of the announced forecast prices for 2014 California almonds to growers increased 15% per pound to $2.65 or higher.  The smaller crop is being attributed to two factors; First, the natural drop in Nonpareil almonds after a record yield last year and second, the ongoing drought affecting water availability for the orchards.  The May 1^st report did not include third-leaf immature trees which can produce 10% – 30% of the almonds they would when fully mature. Output from these trees could offset the lower Nonpareil crop.  The industry will get a better picture of the 2014 crop when the USDA releases its 2014 objective almond forecast on June 30^th.

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