Grain exports from Russia will be less than U.S. government forecasts as the country changes regulations making it more difficult to ship out cargoes. The uncertainty of the supply from Russia will likely drive buyers to find alternative sources, which is good news for France, Germany, the Black Sea countries of Romania and Bulgaria and possibly the Baltics. However if EU shipments continue to increase, the EU may need to import corn to meet animal feed demand. A domestic currency crisis within Russia, the world’s fourth biggest wheat supplier, has caused the rouble to fall by approximately 45% and has driven up the price of bread. Russia has already shipped between 15 million and 16 million tons of the 22 million tons of wheat expected to ship this season, but in an effort to reverse soaring prices, the government is denying export certifications and restricting railway deliveries in order to raise domestic supply. Shipments to Egypt and Turkey are expected to be filled, however, total exports will likely be 3 million to 4 million tons less than the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated.
To receive relevant news stories with summaries provided by GAI Research & Insight, subscribe to Global AgDevelopments, our free weekly enhanced eNews service